The bait and switch
Now, on to the article itself. The biggest and most obvious way this article misleads its readers is by functioning as an example of the fallacy of equivocation, otherwise known as the bait and switch technique. This is a favourite technique of the tabloids, with an article starting by talking about one thing in the headline and opening, and then subtly shifting to talk about something else later on in the article without making the shift clear, so the reader thinks they're still reading about the original thing.
It's a bit like a dodgy double glazing salesman talking about how wonderful their super deluxe models are while quoting a ridiculously cheap price without letting on that the wonderfully cheap price is for their bog-standard-let-the-rain-in-rattle-in-the-wind-piece-of-crap models until the contract is signed.
The way this article works is by setting up one big bait and switch, with mini switches backwards and forwards between two sets of figures throughout the article. The thing is, not only does the article never make it clear when it is switching, it never makes it clear that there is any difference between the two things it's talking about in the first place. On top of that, there are little snippets of misinformation within the main bait and switch structure that bolster the false impression the article creates.
So, on to the bait.
The bait
The headine and opening sentences function as the bait in this article, which will be switched later. More on the switch in the next post. But for now . . .
The headline
Never mind for now that the real number of people from Bulgaria and Romania who have applied to be circus artistes is not 120 a day but less than one half of one person per day. I covered that in 'The Daily Mail tells lies about immigration. Again.'
Aside from being a big, huge lie, the headline potentially sets up another false impression before the reader hits the actual number. If 120 a day come to be circus stars, there must be absolutely loads streaming in. Very few people would read this headline and think that it must mean that every single Bulgarian and Romanian who has come here in the last three months has registered to be a circus star. Most - me included, at first - would think that these 120 a day are just a fraction of the total. Not in fact more than the total, which is the case (the total number of people whose applications to come to the UK have been approved works out at 88 per day).
The opening two sentences
The impression created by the headline is bolstered by the opening sentence:
More than 120 Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants are arriving in Britain every day, the Home Office revealed.The headline says 120 a day come to be circus stars. Here, the paper explicitly states that the total is more than 120 a day. The real total - or rather, the Mail's version of it - is revealed in the next sentence. But before we get to that, let's just recap what a reader is likely to already be thinking:
- The government's immigration figures are always underestimates
- The number of people who have come from Bulgaria and Romania is actually between 60 and 150 thousand
- 120 a day come to be circus stars
- More than 120 a day have come overall
The figures - the first since the two countries joined the EU in January - show 10,535 have registered to work in Britain in the last five months.I put the "real" in scare quotes because the figure of 10,535 doesn't appear anywhere in the actual Home Office stats (see 'The Daily Mail tells lies about immigration. Again.' for more). But what do you think the reaction will be of someone who already has the ideas put forward by the Mail in their mind? It can only be disbelief.
Even without having the ideas put forward by the Mail in mind, the reader can only think of the government figures as a complete and utter shambles. They say over 120 people are arriving every day. They say 120 a day are claiming to be circus stars. And yet, they say that only 10,535 have arrived in five months.
Except they don't.
Every single claim the paper has made so far is false. A total of only fifty five people have registered to be circus artistes, not 120 a day (which would make 10,800 in three months, or 18,000 over five). Less than 120 people a day have registered, not more than - and that's over three months. The government figures cover three months, not five. And they show 10,420 have attempted to register, not 10,535. It's actually the paper's own made up figures that don't add up, not the government's.
Not only that, but the 'arrive in Britain' language used misleads even further. The number 'arriving in Britain' to be anything is actually a fair bit less than 10,420. Some applications to register have been rejected or withdrawn, and at no point does the paper make it clear that the mysterious 10,535 it quotes would refer to the total number of applications - not the total number of permits issued. The actual number of people from Romania and Bulgaria who have had their applications to come to live in the UK approved is just 7,935. Even if you assume that every single outstanding application will be approved and add them to the total, you get 9,685.
The list of things a reader will now be thinking is:
- The government's immigration figures are always underestimates
- The number of people who have come from Bulgaria and Romania is actually between 60 and 150 thousand
- 120 a day come to be circus stars
- More than 120 a day have come overall
- The government's overall figure is actually lower than 120 a day for three months
- The government's figures cover a five month period.
What can a reader do with the government number but dismiss it?
The next two sentence/paragraphs
The next two sentence/paragraphs connect the bait with the switch, so there will be more on them later. But as part of the bait, they create some dodgy false impressions of their own. The first one says:
Some 40,000 more are predicted to arrive by the end of the year. And many will presumably be seeking employment in a Big Top.Predicted by whom? At first, I assumed that this meant the 40,000 were part of the Bulgarian and Romanian Accession Statistics, but they're not, although the paper definitely gives the impression that they are. The stats don't appear anywhere there. Given that Liam Byrne refused to forecast the number of Romanians and Bulgarians who might arrive in 2007, it seems highly unlikely that this is a government prediction.
The closest I can find is a forecast by the IPPR, which came out before any restrictions were placed on Romanian and Bulgarian workers, and suggested that 56,000 would arrive by the end of the year. It assumes a similar set up to the Worker Registration Scheme, so does not count self employed, highly skilled and otherwise exempt people. The government figures do count these people. The prediction isn't compatible. It became useless after the government introduced restrictions.
This becomes more relevant when discussing the switch, but for now it's worth noting another sneaky shift between sets of figures to set up the bait.
The next paragraph is this:
For rather than the plumbers and builders many expected, the top profession listed by Romanians is "circus artiste". Most Bulgarians claim to have worked as chefs or carers while musician, researcher and hotel worker also make the cut.It does some important things to bridge between the bait and the switch, but more on that later.
For now, it's worth noting first of all that this isn't actually true. As I mentioned in 'The Daily Mail tells lies...' it's only the top profession from a certain group. The total number of Romanians registered as circus artiste is just 40. The same goes for chef and carers for Bulgarians. The total for both put together is also 40. Only 5 Bulgarians are listed as musucians, and 5 researchers. No hotel workers make the list, but I have an idea that the figures have been amended since they were first published, since I'm sure there was no figure for Bulgarian circus artistes.
Another important thing is that this claim casts more doubt on the government stats with the creation of another false impression. And that is - if most Romanians are claiming to be circus artistes, they're probably not telling the truth. Remember, we've already been told that the number who are claiming that amount to 120 a day. How could there possibly be around 10,000 vacancies for circus artiste in this country? If the government are falling for their claims, then they're gullible in the extreme and allowing as many as 120 a day to cheat the system in this way. This helps throw the government figures into further doubt.
The bait is rotten
In my example of a bait and switch at the beginning of this article, I used the image of a double glazing salesman talking about the benefits of his super deluxe model and only mentioning the price of his bog standard model. But this article is worse than that. It's more like the salesman talking about the super deluxe double glazing and pretending it does extra things that it actualy doesn't, like turning into a TV screen and shooting out lasers to kill flies that buzz around it. Because pretty much everything this article has claimed in its bait is actually not true at all, and it's all set up to make the government figures look less reliable or accurate than they are.
Here are the set of things a reader may well be thinking now, as they get to the article's switch. They include some things the article has implied rather than claimed, so not every reader would have necessarily picked up all of these:
- The government's immigration figures are always underestimates
- The number of people who have come from Bulgaria and Romania is actually between 60 and 150 thousand
- 120 a day come to be circus stars
- More than 120 a day have come overall
- The government's overall figure is actually lower than 120 a day for three months
- The government's figures cover a five month period
- The government have predicted a further 40,000 this year
- The government figures don't add up at all
- The government is incompetently allowing most Romanians - 120 a day - fraudulently register as circus artiste
Click below for the further thrilling instalments in 'How the Daily Mail lies about immigration'!
How the Daily Mail lies about immigration. Part I: "The Context"
How the Daily Mail lies about immigration. Part III: "The Switch"
How the Daily Mail lies about immigration. Part IV: "The Big Little Lie"
How the Daily Mail lies about immigration. Part V: "The Quotes"
How the Daily Mail lies about immigration. Part VI: "The Final Chapter"
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